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Prediction markets for Come Near

Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?

Jan 16, 1:30 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

19.01%chance

252033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

1056

Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?

May 2, 4:09 PMJun 11, 6:59 PM

21.99%chance

281766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

907

Will there be two SpaceX Starship–SuperHeavy launches within a single 30 day period in 2024?

Jan 9, 7:20 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

18.02%chance

241117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1426

865

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Dec 30, 7:55 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.73%chance

12320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

994

Will Israel end the military conscription exemption for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox Jews) before the next general election?

Mar 26, 1:39 PMNov 24, 11:59 PM

70.48%chance

362949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

887

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Dec 30, 7:46 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82%chance

13287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

945

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.15%chance

291297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

921

Would internet bot traffic reach 90% by 2028?

Jan 13, 10:20 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

36.07%chance

251072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

838

Will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024?

Nov 8, 5:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.76%chance

141679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

954

942

Will someone fail to hydrate/eat, dying as a result, because they could not perceive reality, their hunger, or their thirst, while using a social media network in the next 10 years?

Dec 6, 3:48 AMDec 6, 4:00 AM

41.37%chance

16986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

882

Manned mission to a near earth asteroid before landing on the Moon?

Apr 24, 2:18 PMOct 17, 9:59 PM

10.35%chance

301677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

826

4) The most advanced closed models will continue to outperform the most advanced open models by a meaningful margin.

Dec 25, 1:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

92.3%chance

371358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1549

911

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