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Anti-Muslim Incidents Double to 1,926 in Germany, NGO Reports
Authors
5
7 days
Economics
Business

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

22.14%chance

1585789718

OptionVotes

YES

18745

9012

Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?

Jun 11, 7:16 PMDec 4, 4:59 AM

23%chance

176231289

OptionVotes

YES

11618

9298

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45%chance

95230951

OptionVotes

YES

10382

9670

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.98%chance

3814288

OptionVotes

YES

14526

7010

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)

Jul 5, 9:04 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

69%chance

7532890

OptionVotes

YES

2331

2006

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Feb 13, 4:54 PMJan 1, 12:30 PM

34.64%chance

506052

OptionVotes

YES

1018

931

Will Donald Trump claim election fraud against opponents in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Nov 10, 11:06 AMNov 5, 1:00 AM

7.23%chance

17946581

OptionVotes

YES

8558

623

Will OpenAI release GPT-5 this summer (2024) as BusinessInsider claims?

Mar 20, 2:13 PMSep 1, 1:59 PM

9.44%chance

19935981

OptionVotes

YES

5836

909

Is there a "secret gigawatt-class GPU cluster being constructed in Kuwait"? [Elon claim]

Jan 23, 5:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.14%chance

555342

OptionVotes

YES

2203

1376

Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2024?

Mar 30, 8:07 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

51.64%chance

662157

OptionVotes

YES

1093

1020

🐕 Will A.I. Get Significantly Better at Evaluating Scientific Claims by the end of 2024? (As Measured By Leaderboard)

Mar 29, 4:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.09%chance

865746

OptionVotes

YES

2141

643

Will another sexual harassment claim come out against Elon Musk by the end of 2024?

Sep 1, 2:36 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.8%chance

718189

OptionVotes

YES

2561

252

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Anti-Muslim Incidents Double to 1,926 in Germany, NGO Reports
Authors
5
7 days
Economics
Business

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Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Will Donald Trump claim election fraud against opponents in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Will OpenAI release GPT-5 this summer (2024) as BusinessInsider claims?

Is there a "secret gigawatt-class GPU cluster being constructed in Kuwait"? [Elon claim]

Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2024?

🐕 Will A.I. Get Significantly Better at Evaluating Scientific Claims by the end of 2024? (As Measured By Leaderboard)

Will another sexual harassment claim come out against Elon Musk by the end of 2024?

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Prediction markets for Claim

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Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)