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Causal News
Prediction markets for Causal
Prediction markets for Causal
Will causality be an important ingredient in major commercial applications of AI by the end of 2025?
Aug 24, 11:19 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
37.95%
chance
24
857
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1167
531
Will I understand a causal decision theorist/frequentist/libertarian free will believer before the end of 2024?
Nov 26, 8:21 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
38.4%
chance
10
290
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1005
981
By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?
Nov 15, 5:00 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
81.22%
chance
16
2710
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1130
949
Will Pearl's causality have important implications for fundamental physics?
Dec 1, 3:30 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
13.41%
chance
24
760
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1335
914
Will the causal factors for the global secular decline in men's testosterone levels become clear by 2028?
May 25, 4:49 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
52.52%
chance
5
53
Option
Votes
YES
NO
111
108
Will causal inference be “very important in AI” by 2035?
Apr 4, 5:39 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
30.69%
chance
6
132
Option
Votes
YES
NO
314
158
Will AGI be maximally impatient in trying to expand its causally-affectable portion of the universe?
Mar 26, 4:17 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
42.2%
chance
2
20
Option
Votes
YES
NO
100
82
Will I find an extension of Pearl's causality compatible with quantum mechanics by the end of 2024?
Dec 1, 3:18 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
74.33%
chance
7
236
Option
Votes
NO
YES
239
98
Will a LLM/elicit be able to do proper causal modeling (identifying papers that didn't control for covariates) in 2024?
Sep 10, 11:54 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
40.98%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
80
62
Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2030?
Feb 4, 8:20 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
5
322
Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2025?
Feb 4, 8:17 AM
Jan 1, 1:55 PM
9
588
In 2025, what 2019-2022 work of AI safety will I think was most significant?
Dec 31, 8:13 PM
Jan 1, 8:13 PM
11
329
Articles
Latest stories
New England VC Hosts 11th NEVY Awards, Recognizes 15 Companies Including Nimbus Therapeutics, Cartwheel Care, Klaviyo, Causal, Sage Therapeutics, CloudZeroInc, ReNAgade Therapeutics, and 1upHealth for Innovation
Authors
5
7 months
VC
Business
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