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Big Three News
Prediction markets for Big Three
Prediction markets for Big Three
Will one of the “Big Three” automakers (GM/Ford/Stellantis) file for bankruptcy before 2027?
Jul 31, 11:02 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
40.68%
chance
27
1845
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1081
930
What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)
May 9, 8:42 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
34.45%
chance
22
17148
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1016
956
Will Manifold think that AI progress between Nov 2023-Oct 2024 will have been >= the progress between Nov 2022-Oct 2023?
Nov 9, 10:13 PM
Nov 2, 6:59 AM
50.54%
chance
12
467
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1018
977
Prospera wins fight against Honduras
Sep 12, 2:17 PM
May 1, 8:59 PM
48%
chance
25
1064
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1074
904
Will "Civil War" (2024) be the highest grossing A24 film worldwide? (>111M, for EEAAO)
Apr 8, 12:22 PM
Jul 9, 6:59 AM
39%
chance
16
2669
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1178
98
Will I exceed my all-time PRs in the Big 3 Lifts before the end of 2024?
May 10, 3:49 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
95.02%
chance
2
357
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1353
922
Vox Future Perfect 2024: 45 percent of the US egg supply will be cage-free by late November?
Feb 1, 5:04 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
46.84%
chance
2
35
Option
Votes
YES
NO
98
81
Will GiveWell fund/recommend Ultra Poor Graduation initiatives before January 2028?
Jan 15, 9:48 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
31.14%
chance
4
90
Option
Votes
YES
NO
160
110
Will GiveWell research Ultra Poor Graduation initiatives before January 2026?
Jan 14, 9:41 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
49.38%
chance
4
24
Option
Votes
YES
NO
113
107
What quarter will Tesla allow me to drive from San Mateo to Palo Alto in my Model Y mostly at SAE 3+?
Nov 29, 6:12 PM
Apr 2, 6:59 AM
8
276
What Year will Tesla allow me to drive from San Mateo to Palo Alto in my Model Y mostly at SAE 3+?
Nov 29, 6:35 PM
Apr 2, 6:59 AM
2
1060
If Rootclaim/Saar analyze Al-Shifa Hospital, will they conclude it was used for "command and control activities"?
Jan 4, 10:35 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
15
2109
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26
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4
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7
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9
7 months
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6
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11
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12
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26
8 months
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13
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29
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28
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6
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