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Prediction markets for Big Data
Prediction markets for Big Data
Will data from the James Webb Space Telescope disprove the Big Bang?
Aug 15, 1:06 PM
Dec 23, 4:59 AM
8.1%
chance
61
5772
Option
Votes
YES
NO
987
795
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
Apr 18, 12:18 AM
Jul 7, 4:00 PM
260
321321
What 2+ word phrases will appear unbroken in a front-page NYT headline before 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Feb 28, 8:03 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
146
35229
Is OpenAI's Q* real?
Nov 23, 5:26 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
60.61%
chance
129
14243
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1333
993
Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?
Jun 13, 7:39 AM
Jun 13, 8:59 PM
61.27%
chance
12
313
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1019
939
Will a Big Mac cost more than $10 in 2026?
Jan 13, 8:49 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
39.49%
chance
20
664
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1008
972
Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Aug 10, 5:55 PM
Dec 18, 2:59 PM
62.07%
chance
17
243
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1139
891
Will a Big Mac cost more than $10 in 2024?
Jan 13, 4:33 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
11.05%
chance
25
645
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1323
927
Do data engineering jobs disappear due to the developments in AI in near future ?
Jan 3, 12:34 PM
Feb 2, 8:59 PM
10.42%
chance
13
618
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1315
922
Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths
Dec 25, 7:05 AM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
13
2065
Vox Future Perfect 2024: 45 percent of the US egg supply will be cage-free by late November?
Feb 1, 5:04 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
46.84%
chance
2
35
Option
Votes
YES
NO
98
81
Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]
Dec 22, 8:25 AM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
51%
chance
7
59
Option
Votes
YES
NO
156
143
Articles
Latest stories
Union Minister Piyush Goyal Attends National Startup Awards, Releases States' Startup Ranking on National Startup Day 2024 in India
Authors
9
6 months
AI
Tech
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