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Prediction markets for Average Booking

Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2030?

Feb 21, 5:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43%chance

10919074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

903

Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2038?

Feb 18, 1:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.01%chance

503673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

944

will the scarlet maintain a daily language study streak throughout 2024?

Jan 11, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.78%chance

10663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

939

I will read a book (non-audiobook) for every week of 2024

Dec 17, 7:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.87%chance

12411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

940

By 2030, will an electric car be the most economical car you can buy in the US?

May 23, 1:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.14%chance

14403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1347

807

Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2028?

Feb 21, 11:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.72%chance

465948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1699

745

Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2026?

Feb 21, 11:20 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.32%chance

161447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

967

In 2024, will voice interfaces reach the level implied by 2011 Siri commercials?

Jan 20, 5:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.25%chance

11188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

954

Was 9/11 an inside job? (2100)

Oct 19, 3:51 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

6.67%chance

222739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2037

858

Tyler Cowen's claims about reading and travel continue to be accepted through mid 2028

Dec 18, 4:41 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

97.57%chance

20950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

909

49

How big will the Google Trends Interest in autogynephilia in 2026-2028 be?

Jun 20, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

Will the 2024 Nobel Prize for Literature be awarded to an author who writes in English?

Dec 10, 9:53 PMOct 1, 5:59 AM

44.5%chance

863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

162

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