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ATOMIC BURRITO INC

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Prediction markets for Atomic

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

44.05%chance

18918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

951

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)

Oct 14, 1:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.63%chance

14226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

Will NASA use atomic clocks on the moon as part of their initial timekeeping method?

Apr 22, 1:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.54%chance

18563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

915

Will an element with an atomic number greater than that of oganesson (118) be synthesized before 2028?

Jul 15, 9:57 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

47.59%chance

15426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

914

Is 1,000 atoms ever sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design or any circumstance? (Upgradable KBC, resolves in 2025)

Feb 6, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.22%chance

17496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1169

924

Will complex atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 9:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

39%chance

11220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

980

Will a global AI watchdog be set up in London, modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency, by Jan 1 2026?

Jun 3, 1:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.81%chance

17839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

909

Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?

Apr 2, 9:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.85%chance

16849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1336

904

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12.82%chance

15314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

959

Will an atomic phone be sold by 2031?

Jan 24, 7:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7%chance

15958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

965

Will any lab claim to have synthesized a new chemical element with the atomic number >118 in 2024?

Jan 11, 3:55 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

5.18%chance

15917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

929

Will complex atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?

Apr 2, 9:53 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

14.9%chance

8363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

272

107

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