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ASLN
ASLAN PHARMACEUTICALS LTD
0.30
+4.9%
ASLN
ASLAN PHARMACEUTICALS LTD
0.30
+4.9%
Prediction markets for ASL
Prediction markets for ASL
Will any LLM released by EOY 2025 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?
Sep 20, 3:16 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
45.88%
chance
42
3237
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1827
1226
Will any LLM released by EOY 2024 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?
Sep 20, 11:53 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
21.23%
chance
69
4412
Option
Votes
NO
YES
998
931
The first Anthropic-trained AI system to qualify as ASL-3 qualifies because of misuse risks rather than autonomy risks
Oct 3, 2:12 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
81.58%
chance
12
346
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1178
928
When will there first be an AI system that qualifies as ASL-3?
Oct 3, 2:03 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
5
841
How many FLOPs will go into training the first ASL-3 model?
Oct 3, 2:08 AM
Oct 10, 3:59 AM
5
648
When will Anthropic first train an AI system that they claim qualifies as ASL-3?
Oct 3, 1:58 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
8
415
When will there first be a credible report that an AI system qualifies as ASL-3?
Oct 3, 2:05 AM
Oct 10, 3:59 AM
6
342
When will Anthropic release its initial round of ASL-4 commitments?
Feb 27, 9:50 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
4
244
Will I be allowed to fall asleep during a trip using Tesla FSD between Utah and California by the end of 2024?
Nov 28, 11:22 PM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
5.3%
chance
6
533
Option
Votes
YES
NO
400
50
How often do you fall asleep listening to some content?
Jan 21, 5:04 PM
34
0
Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?
Oct 29, 3:47 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
27.35%
chance
28
2107
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1110
945
Articles
Latest stories
NHL to Air First-Ever ASL Broadcast for Stanley Cup Final, Providing Immersive Experience for Deaf Community
Authors
8
26 days
Sports
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