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Prediction markets for American Association

Will the American Diabetes Association cease to exist before 2030?

Apr 1, 1:50 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

29.39%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

105

What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?

Jan 22, 7:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9312411

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

49.89%chance

383058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

874

Will the Phase 2 Trials of Lepodisiran be a Success?

May 19, 12:05 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

55.9%chance

2130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

888

Will the Las Vegas Aces be crowned the WNBA Champions in 2024?

Jan 7, 2:15 PMOct 12, 10:59 PM

26.82%chance

14518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

804

By 2028 end, will there be AI-assisted therapy, where therapists visually explore a patient's thoughts/memories?

Jul 5, 4:15 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

17.51%chance

391754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Will the nutritional mix for baby formula turn out to be relatively harmful compared to foods that could have have been assembled at home with ingredients that can be commonly found in an American ?

May 20, 1:20 PMMay 28, 3:59 AM

15.37%chance

14317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

868

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:37 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.64%chance

16674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

959

Will Donald Trump order the US military to crush protesters?

Dec 17, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.53%chance

9122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

188

Will Hubris ship in a non-Oxide Computer Company product this decade?

Sep 1, 12:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75

65

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2025?

Jun 1, 6:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.99%chance

8234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

121

[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?

Oct 22, 8:52 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

50.4%chance

8189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

142

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