AI Steve News

AI Chatbots VIC and AI Steve Enter Political Arena with Businessman Steve Endacott Representing AI Steve in UK Parliament Race in Cheyenne, Wyoming
Authors
17
16 days
AI
Tech

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

36.39%chance

838331

OptionVotes

YES

1736

1344

Will we wake up in a changed world in 2025?

Jan 1, 4:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.5%chance

654203

OptionVotes

YES

1088

1038

Will one of the monthly "has weak AGI been achieved" polls regress during 2024?

Jun 9, 4:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.86%chance

10457

OptionVotes

YES

1389

720

Will my stock trading model exceed 100% CAGR?

Jan 23, 3:07 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

18.37%chance

369823

OptionVotes

YES

1217

910

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.15%chance

291297

OptionVotes

YES

1033

921

Will an artificial intelligence system play a major artistic role in the 2024 Olympic opening ceremonies?

Jun 9, 11:00 PMJul 27, 3:59 AM

13.44%chance

433877

OptionVotes

YES

2538

394

Will effective altruism be "winning" over effective accelerationism at the end of 2024?

Dec 30, 9:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

51.24%chance

281319

OptionVotes

YES

1054

901

Will AI achieve superintelligence in music composition by 2026?

Dec 1, 12:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.34%chance

272746

OptionVotes

YES

1114

950

Will Manifold become overrun with fake women profiles?

Feb 25, 11:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.44%chance

14681

OptionVotes

YES

1170

933

Will AI displace social drinking within 5 years?

Jun 2, 6:46 PMMay 30, 3:59 AM

8.04%chance

7116922

OptionVotes

YES

3381

296

Will a majority of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI has been achieved in one of the 2024 monthly polls?

Jun 9, 4:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.9%chance

323200

OptionVotes

YES

3415

293

Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?

Mar 19, 8:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

93.55%chance

151072

OptionVotes

YES

1535

911

Latest stories

AI Chatbots VIC and AI Steve Enter Political Arena with Businessman Steve Endacott Representing AI Steve in UK Parliament Race in Cheyenne, Wyoming
Authors
17
16 days
AI
Tech

AI Steve News

Top stories

Prediction markets for AI Steve

Prediction markets for AI Steve

Prediction markets for AI Steve

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Will we wake up in a changed world in 2025?

Will one of the monthly "has weak AGI been achieved" polls regress during 2024?

Will my stock trading model exceed 100% CAGR?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will an artificial intelligence system play a major artistic role in the 2024 Olympic opening ceremonies?

Will effective altruism be "winning" over effective accelerationism at the end of 2024?

Will AI achieve superintelligence in music composition by 2026?

Will Manifold become overrun with fake women profiles?

Will AI displace social drinking within 5 years?

Will a majority of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI has been achieved in one of the 2024 monthly polls?

Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for AI Steve

Prediction markets for AI Steve

Prediction markets for AI Steve

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Will we wake up in a changed world in 2025?

Will one of the monthly "has weak AGI been achieved" polls regress during 2024?

Will my stock trading model exceed 100% CAGR?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.