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Prediction markets for AI Fund

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?

Jan 8, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.57%chance

10513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

909

Will a large-scale, Eliezer-Yudkowsky-approved AI alignment project be funded before 2025?

Sep 14, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

5020474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

1023

Will any lawmakers use AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?

Apr 22, 5:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.71%chance

13250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1160

927

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.09%chance

201198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

875

Will a large scale, government-backed AI alignment project be funded before 2025?

Sep 14, 4:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.87%chance

325198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1599

848

Will a very large-scale AI alignment project be funded before 2025?

Sep 14, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.85%chance

181337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

968

Will GiveWell fund an AI-related intervention this year?

Jun 27, 8:18 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.78%chance

92221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3037

329

Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028

Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

581

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

119

Was there ever a memo of OpenAI leadership discussing selling to the Russian government to fund AI development?

Jun 4, 6:55 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

22.08%chance

5360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

686

269

Will the Navigation Fund make over $10M of grants to AI safety causes in 2024?

Nov 26, 5:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.95%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

74

What will Harvey (Legal AI funded by OpenAI) be valued at in their next round/deal? (in millions)

Dec 20, 11:44 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

18.42%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

325

130

Will National Governments Collectively Give More than $100M a year in funding for AI Alignment by 2030?

Dec 15, 9:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

81.15%chance

9237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

428

168

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Amazon Adds AI Expert Andrew Ng to Board, Eyeing Biggest Tech Breakthrough Since Internet
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