Advance Publications News

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by April 23, 2025?

Apr 30, 6:49 PMApr 24, 4:59 AM

41.41%chance

293443

OptionVotes

YES

20723

16106

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

38.02%chance

613183455

OptionVotes

YES

17741

10483

Was Ilya spooked by a capabilities advance?

Nov 20, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.45%chance

432117800

OptionVotes

YES

8606

2139

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16%chance

616628

OptionVotes

YES

1246

922

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.26%chance

819696

OptionVotes

YES

2768

788

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89.52%chance

8011369

OptionVotes

YES

1865

1085

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.17%chance

402419

OptionVotes

YES

1480

919

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.09%chance

9447342

OptionVotes

YES

1498

1357

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

51.19%chance

342033

OptionVotes

YES

1188

713

Will at least 8 of Stephen Casper's 10 accomplishments for SAEs happen by 5/26/25?

May 26, 6:43 PMMay 28, 3:59 AM

16.35%chance

101611

OptionVotes

YES

2262

442

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.36%chance

15214388

OptionVotes

YES

1029

964

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

41.22%chance

401818

OptionVotes

YES

1093

834

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Advance Publications News

Prediction markets for Advance Publications

Prediction markets for Advance Publications

Prediction markets for Advance Publications

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by April 23, 2025?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

Was Ilya spooked by a capabilities advance?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Will at least 8 of Stephen Casper's 10 accomplishments for SAEs happen by 5/26/25?

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Advance Publications

Prediction markets for Advance Publications

Prediction markets for Advance Publications

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by April 23, 2025?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

Was Ilya spooked by a capabilities advance?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?