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Adjacent News
Prediction markets for Adjacent
Prediction markets for Adjacent
What percentage of Twitter ads served to me will be porn-adjacent in December 2024?
Dec 25, 3:50 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
6
60
Will anyone show up to a rationalist-adjacent event in a quokka fursuit before 2026?
Dec 22, 8:36 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
46.51%
chance
8
207
Option
Votes
YES
NO
179
149
Will Donald Trump respond to claims that he’s used ozempic or ozempic adjacent medication in 2024?
Feb 7, 5:04 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
31.71%
chance
9
129
Option
Votes
YES
NO
211
145
Which transhumanism(-adjacent) movement is/was the coolest?
May 26, 12:23 PM
6
0
What causes Manifold Love to fail? (Resolves to multiple answers)
Apr 2, 2:17 AM
Dec 31, 1:29 PM
10
2556
What will be true of the first Enhanced Games?
Feb 2, 5:10 PM
Oct 2, 3:59 AM
40
1873
Will someone fly a banner with the word “Rationalussy” over the San Francisco Bay in 2024?
Jan 1, 3:55 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
11.6%
chance
24
3006
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1333
906
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
70.5%
chance
13
171
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1003
990
Will Matt Levine write about impact certificates or impact markets by the end of 2024?
Sep 7, 9:45 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
53.46%
chance
13
823
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1049
949
Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?
Jun 13, 6:27 PM
Jan 20, 7:27 PM
63.39%
chance
15
479
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1001
996
Will Waymo give public driverless rides on any SF freeways by the end of 2024? [description]
Nov 6, 5:11 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
69.08%
chance
33
2595
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1098
899
Will any living self-identified EA donate an eye by 2030?
Nov 10, 8:34 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
17%
chance
14
301
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1195
940
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Doly App Launches with Seed Funding, Enabling 3D Product Video Creation on iPhone
Authors
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1 month
AI
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