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ACID News
Prediction markets for ACID
Prediction markets for ACID
Will automated chemical synthesis produce heavy nitrogen/hydrogen versions of every amino acid >50% of sites by EOY 2025
Nov 15, 3:34 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
48.64%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
NO
YES
70
70
Will polylactic acid based (natural) microplastics be shown to be more benign than polyethylene/polypropylene based ones
Nov 30, 11:56 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
64.3%
chance
2
20
Option
Votes
NO
YES
110
75
Will the Bennu asteroid sample contain terrestrial amino acids?
Sep 22, 10:08 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
19.26%
chance
8
213
Option
Votes
YES
NO
347
116
[Mega Independent]/Prop bets: What will be true of the next James Bond movie?
Nov 23, 9:13 PM
Dec 1, 7:59 AM
117
43675
What biological characteristics will the first proven aliens have?
Aug 7, 11:45 AM
Dec 31, 8:59 PM
14
977
Ocean Acidification Should Be More Worrying Than Atmospheric Climate Change (Resolves to Probability)
Feb 15, 4:56 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
49.75%
chance
38
1761
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1149
791
Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?
May 25, 12:30 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
36.81%
chance
8
1118
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4069
3096
Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?
Oct 8, 9:05 AM
Dec 16, 7:59 AM
7%
chance
17
2181
Option
Votes
NO
YES
985
448
Can anti-cavity oral probiotics spread directly between people via mouth-to-mouth contact?
Nov 20, 2:28 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
21.7%
chance
21
406
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1114
948
3) The terms “large language model” and “LLM” will become less common.
Dec 25, 1:32 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
71.62%
chance
44
1315
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1248
857
Will Lumina Probiotics be offering applications of their bacteria at the end of 2024?
Nov 20, 4:39 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
85.92%
chance
11
410
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1249
924
Can a neural net do end to end significant chemistry experiments before 2040?
Jun 22, 10:53 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
96.11%
chance
29
28306
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1696
918
Articles
Latest stories
Cannes ACID Section Reveals 2024 Line-Up Featuring 'It Doesn't Matter' with Christopher Abbott & Jay Will, World Premiere
Authors
5
3 months
Culture
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