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Prediction markets for ACCI

Will Tao be severely injured in a electric unicycle accident in 2024?

Jun 7, 7:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.62%chance

125253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8619

5726

Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030?

Aug 3, 5:05 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

52.01%chance

24829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

943

Fewer than 20k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040

May 15, 1:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

53.99%chance

26728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

941

Do the high CO2 levels in cars increase 'accidents leading to death' by >=10%?

Oct 8, 1:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.48%chance

15278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

926

Will someone die in a motor vehicle accident while wearing an Apple Vision Pro in 2024?

Feb 7, 10:04 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

20.5%chance

23766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

830

Will a Manifold bot author accidentally leak their API key by the end of 2024?

Aug 23, 3:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

39.74%chance

11256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

970

Will there be a new helicopter accident/incident after the Iran President's crash and before July 2024? (Per Wikipedia)

May 26, 3:31 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

12.36%chance

92051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2662

376

Will I get in a car accident involving a deer in the next 10 years?

Apr 29, 2:12 AMApr 29, 3:59 AM

17.4%chance

12462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

971

Will any Waymo driverless vehicle be involved in a serious accident in 2024?

Jan 23, 1:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.5%chance

14826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

851

Fewer than 10k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040

Jun 19, 3:20 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

45.14%chance

19718

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

956

Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030

Nov 25, 2:05 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

13.82%chance

15757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

929

Will some combination of the major cryonics companies accidentally thaw at least two patients before 2030?

Apr 25, 7:54 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

14.32%chance

151389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

945

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