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Prediction markets for Academia
Prediction markets for Academia
Will the MHA (My Hero Academia) manga end in 2024?
Nov 4, 9:29 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
92.12%
chance
22
8378
Option
Votes
NO
YES
3126
181
When will Boku no Hero Academia (Manga) conclude?
Jan 10, 5:40 PM
Jan 18, 4:59 AM
4
987
My friend, a Yale Economics PhD in his 4th year, will be in academia in 2029.
Feb 12, 4:55 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
51%
chance
7
79
Option
Votes
YES
NO
175
163
Who is Deku's father Hisashi Midoriya? (My Hero Academia)
Mar 2, 6:17 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
3
182
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
290193
Where will Andrej Karpathy work next after OpenAI, before 2025?
Feb 14, 1:43 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
89
7483
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
Apr 18, 12:18 AM
Jul 7, 4:00 PM
272
335759
Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?
May 25, 12:30 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
36.81%
chance
8
1118
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4069
3096
Will AI create philosophy before 2030?
Dec 28, 10:41 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
81.3%
chance
70
4375
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2199
820
Will the One Piece x Fortnite collaboration happen in 2024?
Mar 16, 2:18 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
77.71%
chance
14
392
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1102
946
Where will the next major breakthrough in AI originate from before 2025?
May 13, 2:47 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
67
3147
Will "Some (problematic) aesthetics of what constit..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Mar 12, 8:48 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
22.45%
chance
6
100
Option
Votes
YES
NO
199
194
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Authors
4
6 months
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