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Prediction markets for 100

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.15%chance

12938324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13328

9836

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

Feb 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM

63.47%chance

24630273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4514

4273

Will any cryptocurrency have a market cap of at least $100 billion at the end of 2026?

Dec 13, 9:10 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.28%chance

15926538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4654

1393

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.51%chance

46787952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7155

5012

Will bitcoin hit $1 million before it hits $100?

May 3, 11:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70%chance

5311608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

989

By 2025, will at least one song in the Billboard Hot 100 have been primarily AI-generated?

Feb 7, 4:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.84%chance

13113326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3206

1268

If I spend up to another 100 hours talking to Timothy B. Lee about AI existential risk, will it be productive?

Dec 3, 9:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.64%chance

282050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3004

2533

In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?

Mar 30, 5:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.52%chance

766669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2416

977

Will Manifold hit 100,000 DAUs in 2024 if...

Oct 16, 3:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2146337

Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)

May 31, 8:26 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

56.63%chance

615689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

875

Will more than 100,000 voters decide the 2024 election?

Jun 17, 5:25 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

57.83%chance

997182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1606

923

Will a record label release a song with an AI-generated voice of a dead billboard top 100 all time artist, b4 EOY 2024?

Jun 28, 10:31 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

54.96%chance

361889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2047

1140

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