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Prediction markets for Zero

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.32%chance

4246455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2293

433

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.03%chance

17454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

928

At the end of 2025 will the top 5 Mr Beast videos all have Dollar Signs and at least three Zeros in their titles?

May 4, 2:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.85%chance

16383

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

799

Will the world achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2060?

Apr 23, 11:47 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.17%chance

19612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

961

Will Coke Zero use sucralose by the end of 2024?

Jun 30, 11:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

20.23%chance

11353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

967

Will any country have a referendum on Net Zero by 2025?

Aug 17, 6:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.96%chance

25898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

940

Will there be any credible reports of interesting data on a Flipper Zero being transmitted off the device?

Jan 22, 3:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.78%chance

14339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1223

869

Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?

Jan 28, 5:00 PMFeb 4, 11:59 PM

30.53%chance

371233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

824

Will it be confirmed by 2026 that OpenAI had a model/system called Q* or Zero?

Nov 23, 12:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.6%chance

11526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1367

889

Is Yitang Zhang's preprint on Landau-Siegel zeros correct?

Dec 22, 3:46 PMJan 1, 3:29 PM

7.66%chance

171846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

683

Will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set in 2024?

Jan 9, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.63%chance

16400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1176

956

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.29%chance

10603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

917

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