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Prediction markets for Yes

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.3%chance

260536005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3277

1504

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.26%chance

9222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

47.03%chance

371447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

901

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

538822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

787

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

Jun 14, 4:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

95.27%chance

2417384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4487

223

Who will win the fight? (Yes for Musk, no for Zuckerberg)

Aug 11, 6:21 PMDec 31, 7:17 PM

37.19%chance

341615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

832

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.45%chance

11373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

993

978

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Sep 16, 9:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.63%chance

281969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

943

DGG Chat (yes) vs YouTube Chat (no) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 8:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

683502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

1308

Opinion: Democrat (Yes) V Republican (No)

Feb 22, 3:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.63%chance

187024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

931

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Aug 21, 5:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.15%chance

10162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

994

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