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Year to Date News
Prediction markets for Year to Date
Prediction markets for Year to Date
San Mateo science fiction short story reading group predictions
Jan 10, 3:54 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
3
171
ManiTube Algorithm Reversal: what will be true of the next video YouTube recommends?
May 15, 4:30 PM
Feb 9, 5:24 AM
2
152
1 year from the end of the "Bet on Love" dating show, will Manifold staff believe that it was a good idea?
Dec 12, 3:52 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
90%
chance
104
10165
Option
Votes
NO
YES
5240
1525
Conditional on at least dating 6 months before getting married, will Austin and Rachel still be married after 5 years?
Mar 26, 5:33 PM
Mar 26, 11:59 PM
95.49%
chance
15
1254
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1753
891
In the year 4000 CE, what will be the starting date for the most commonly used calendar?
Mar 25, 9:53 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
15
1130
What year will Beyond Good & Evil 2 have its release date?
Nov 28, 1:27 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
9
443
Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?
Aug 29, 5:06 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
84.7%
chance
481
496518
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1440
979
Does listening to music lead to higher utility?
Jun 27, 6:22 PM
Jul 27, 9:59 PM
25.54%
chance
13
52008
Option
Votes
YES
NO
17060
5872
Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]
Aug 2, 10:37 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
24.51%
chance
467
87952
Option
Votes
YES
NO
7155
5012
Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?
Nov 29, 7:19 AM
Jan 21, 11:59 PM
4.23%
chance
37
7373
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1186
653
Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 4:17 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
26.32%
chance
17
8405
Option
Votes
YES
NO
6331
3305
(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?
Oct 24, 3:35 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
50
55650
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Apple Stock ($AAPL) Surges, Hits $215, Up 5% on the Day, Tops $220 by Close, Matches S&P 500 YTD
Authors
11
20 days
Economics
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