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Prediction markets for Year

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Feb 4, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12%chance

7834127045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3979

1752

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

May 5, 11:03 AMJan 2, 1:16 AM

5.98%chance

10346825403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5971

2156

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Mar 11, 5:11 PMJan 2, 10:00 AM

9%chance

4391455091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4360

1741

Will AI agents be able to regularly code small features for us in a year?

Jul 1, 3:01 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

53.61%chance

11623613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

20386

19568

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2150?

May 19, 8:11 AMMay 24, 9:59 PM

13%chance

4432457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1575

462

Will there be a Manifest in the next 2 years?

Jun 19, 8:13 PMJun 20, 6:59 AM

82.4%chance

4317491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9896

8752

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Feb 26, 6:16 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

9.29%chance

193277413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5128

1219

If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?

May 24, 1:59 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

62.41%chance

766474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13957

8750

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

Nov 18, 2:49 PMOct 16, 10:59 PM

15.75%chance

10677886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2318

1810

"The Market" 1 year: Will the average probability of this market be >50%?

Jan 27, 11:25 PMJan 28, 5:59 AM

16.12%chance

67130059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

703

131

If Biden is sworn into a second term will he die within 4 years of being sworn in?

Jul 4, 12:36 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

37.66%chance

142956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11960

8576

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.98%chance

3814288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14526

7010

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