Write News

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16%chance

276100976

OptionVotes

YES

5200

783

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58%chance

17948901

OptionVotes

YES

2545

765

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

1029332

OptionVotes

YES

1730

1390

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky, writing alone?

Sep 27, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

379799

OptionVotes

YES

1022

911

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" in 2024?

Dec 11, 4:58 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.39%chance

575747

OptionVotes

YES

1249

797

What words or phrases will Donald Trump say or write before the election?

Apr 7, 7:59 PMNov 19, 4:59 AM

256170530

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

49.89%chance

383058

OptionVotes

YES

1087

874

Will Taylor Swift write a song that references AI in 2024?

Jan 11, 9:27 PMJan 1, 9:59 AM

9.93%chance

12680

OptionVotes

YES

1499

904

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

65.47%chance

23649

OptionVotes

YES

999

961

Will Scott Alexander write a blog post by end of July about threats to American democracy?

Jun 9, 9:53 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

40%chance

253720

OptionVotes

YES

1225

816

Will I write Dungeon Meshi fic [includes glowfic] before 2024 is out?

May 26, 12:05 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

45.7%chance

3204

OptionVotes

YES

1090

917

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.39%chance

4313

OptionVotes

YES

1185

844

Latest stories

Canva's New AI Features Enhance Creativity and Productivity Across Sectors
Authors
5
1 month
AI
Tech
Canva Introduces AI Features 'Magic Design', 'Magic Media', 'Switch', 'Write', 'AI video tools'
Authors
6
1 month
AI
Tech

Write News

Prediction markets for Write

Prediction markets for Write

Prediction markets for Write

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky, writing alone?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" in 2024?

What words or phrases will Donald Trump say or write before the election?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will Taylor Swift write a song that references AI in 2024?

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Will Scott Alexander write a blog post by end of July about threats to American democracy?

Will I write Dungeon Meshi fic [includes glowfic] before 2024 is out?

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Write

Prediction markets for Write

Prediction markets for Write

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky, writing alone?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" in 2024?

What words or phrases will Donald Trump say or write before the election?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?