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Prediction markets for World War One

Will Russia 🇷🇺 Be the number one world war power in 2025

Mar 28, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:00 AM

2.54%chance

697348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4438

915

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Mar 31, 6:42 PMJul 6, 6:59 PM

334294277

Who will the Teamsters endorse for president in 2024?

May 27, 3:39 PMNov 9, 4:59 AM

347163

Will we wake up in a changed world in 2025?

Jan 1, 4:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.5%chance

654203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

1038

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

Jul 26, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.06%chance

181026

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

939

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.68%chance

16748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

950

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

26.4%chance

16782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

980

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.42%chance

15544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

911

Will the Panguna Mine resume operations by 2028?

Apr 10, 2:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.94%chance

19399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

935

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Feb 23, 5:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

10%chance

15505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

971

Will "World War 3" have begun by 2025?

Apr 17, 5:05 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3.75%chance

11114469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2352

898

Vox Future Perfect 2024: Shohei Ohtani will lead the major leagues in home runs in the 2024 season?

Feb 1, 5:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.2%chance

8525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

317

95

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