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Prediction markets for When You Believe
🧭Which of these things will happen before Ukraine joins NATO? [ADD RESPONSES]
Mar 6, 9:20 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
29
2748
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
60%
chance
181
21792
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2412
1287
What words or phrases will Donald Trump say or write before the election?
Apr 7, 7:59 PM
Nov 19, 4:59 AM
256
170530
Who will be Trump's VP/Running Mate? (Bundled Candidates)
Jan 23, 9:03 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
136
26111
Which of the following AI pundits will publicly recant the belief they're known for holding before 2028?
Nov 18, 11:16 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
6
191
What traits will Google's next CEO have (many traits for you to bet on!)
Feb 23, 7:21 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
90
8248
What new information will surface this year about the sudden closure of Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute?
Apr 17, 3:47 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
31
1364
Will polling show that a majority of American adults believe Oswald "acted alone" before 2030?
Jul 3, 11:12 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
13
161
What string, if submitted as a response choice below, would a much wiser version of me most appreciate being submitted?
Mar 29, 6:07 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
10
148
What will be true of the company Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025? (Add Answers)
Jun 19, 6:01 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
67
33726
Writers' Room: Which of my comedy video ideas will have above-median performance?
Oct 21, 12:05 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
16
743
What conspiracy theories will be proven true by 2100? (Mega Market)
Jan 30, 3:04 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
111
44025
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