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What If News
Prediction markets for What If
Prediction markets for What If
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:46 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
180
45857
If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?
Jul 2, 11:23 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
7
1040
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:01 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
510
320698
If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?
Feb 22, 7:11 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
208
29926
If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?
Sep 14, 4:47 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
35.19%
chance
14
189
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1027
932
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?
Feb 3, 4:23 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
71%
chance
11
196
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1008
988
Will Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A?
Mar 28, 5:21 AM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
29.28%
chance
15
553
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1100
935
If a definitive genetic study of race and intelligence gets performed, what will the W/B genetic g difference be?
Mar 7, 9:01 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
65.91%
chance
12
3595
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1077
949
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?
Feb 3, 4:26 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
18.9%
chance
10
193
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1106
959
If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, what percent of the US population would still be alive after 6 months?
May 31, 7:31 AM
Jun 1, 6:59 AM
23
5867
If alignment is solved, what percentage of the technical work will have come from MIRI?
Sep 30, 10:12 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
5.45%
chance
11
619
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1228
952
What nootropics or other cognitive enhancements will I see a significant positive effect from if I take them?
Jan 17, 11:27 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
19
1100
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