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Prediction markets for We Friends Though

Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?

Oct 26, 6:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.37%chance

17863399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5627

1768

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.39%chance

696224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2514

2202

Will Manifold implement robust and successful incentives for publicizing information?

Nov 14, 11:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.5%chance

22803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

907

Will I be denied entry to the USA or Canada before the end of 2024?

Oct 11, 8:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.9%chance

14367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

973

Is astrology a "gateway pseudoscience"?

Aug 20, 11:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.23%chance

45885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1167

886

Will MrBeast hint at anything political regarding US elections?

Jan 3, 3:40 PMNov 6, 10:59 PM

31.7%chance

22770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

950

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

62.07%chance

17243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

891

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will any 'Green' party, except the DPP, win seats in the 2028 Legislative Election?

Jan 14, 4:41 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

54.95%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

65

Major damage to YouTube video availability by end 2028

Oct 8, 5:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

72

Will MS Dhoni remain actively associated with CSK even after retiring?

Apr 28, 7:45 PMMar 31, 6:29 PM

72.51%chance

487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

265

131

Will AI be a great alternative career path for me as a coder if AI learns to code?

Dec 27, 2:59 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

17383

Will I continue to live in SF between market creation and end of 2025?

Jan 13, 8:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.04%chance

7117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

123

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