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Prediction markets for wars

Will YouTuber 'Whatifalthist's prediction of a new US civil war be covered by major US news media outlets by July 14?

Mar 21, 11:45 AMJul 15, 4:59 AM

4.64%chance

2755235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

74476

15605

Will 2024 prove to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2 as posited by Noah Smith?

Mar 20, 8:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.21%chance

191082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13210

12847

At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?

Nov 12, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.46%chance

25688685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3520

1270

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24%chance

32585363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3695

1314

🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2024?

Dec 28, 11:58 PMDec 31, 5:00 PM

38.75%chance

363247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3305

2715

[Bins up to 256,000] Death Toll in 2023 Israel Hamas war - Palestinian side

Oct 11, 5:55 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

410166337

By 2025, will Google be in a winning position in the "AI war" against Microsoft?

Mar 21, 10:55 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

36.52%chance

19828097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2258

1985

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.42%chance

10311547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4057

816

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30267781

Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

Mar 18, 12:21 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

34.56%chance

6910198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1322

831

Will the USA fight a major land war by 2035?

Aug 20, 11:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.62%chance

562694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

884

If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will a War between China and the USA have occured by the end of his 2025 term?

Dec 10, 12:03 PMFeb 1, 10:59 PM

14.05%chance

4918602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

973

965

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