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Prediction markets for Violence

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.2%chance

7519817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2819

1400

Will anyone commit violence in order to slow the progression of AI?

Nov 2, 3:24 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

70%chance

498622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

855

Will an AI Doomer turn to violence by the end of 2026?

Feb 17, 3:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.69%chance

30785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

950

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.95%chance

10286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

974

Will there be election violence by Inauguration Day?

Jan 17, 8:38 PMJan 25, 8:59 AM

66.07%chance

26599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

927

Will anyone commit violence in order to slow the progression of AI?

Nov 13, 11:06 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

62%chance

241182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

941

Between Oct 1 2024 and Apr 1 2025, will US-election-related violence kill at least 100 Americans?

Feb 3, 7:36 PMApr 3, 6:59 AM

12.56%chance

10310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

968

If the Supreme Court rules Trump should be removed from ballots nationwide, will there be political violence?

Jan 7, 12:14 AMNov 2, 3:59 AM

90.31%chance

15899

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1470

888

Will India have a big communal violence in 2024? (More than 100 casualties)

Jan 18, 12:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.39%chance

4115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

72

Will there be violence in the US after the 2024 presidential election?

Oct 9, 10:25 PMNov 7, 4:59 AM

83.05%chance

8159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

269

74

How many Americans will die due to political violence in 2024?

Jan 3, 7:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25817

Is social status inherently based on violence?

Oct 3, 5:43 PMOct 4, 9:59 PM

67.77%chance

221404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

282

196

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