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Video of the Year News
Prediction markets for Video of the Year
Prediction markets for Video of the Year
What video game genre will win Game of the Year at the 2024 Game Awards
Nov 22, 8:51 PM
Jan 2, 3:59 AM
19
1861
What will be the first year that I will be able to generate a video of a kitten drinking out of a saucer of milk?
Aug 13, 6:30 PM
Jan 14, 4:59 AM
50
8531
What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES]
Apr 7, 5:06 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
45
3949
Will an AI be successfully trained to play Populous The Beginning multiplayer based on bottom-up data (like video training data) by the year 2030?
Jan 1, 7:33 AM
Nov 1, 5:01 AM
69.34%
chance
40
891
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1101
942
Will Tom Scott post another main channel youtube video this year?
Jan 10, 3:29 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
85.43%
chance
13
541
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1033
960
Will I end up logging fewer hours of video games in 2024 than 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, or ANY previous year?
Feb 21, 10:56 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
32.48%
chance
2
28
Option
Votes
YES
NO
92
55
Will there be a new footage of Double Rainbow from Yosemite between now and 15 years since original video upload?
Jan 22, 9:14 PM
Jan 9, 3:59 PM
68.39%
chance
3
31
Option
Votes
NO
YES
119
71
Benchmark Gap #2: Once we have an algorithm with human level sample efficiency for major RL benchmarks, how many years will it be before there is an algorithm with human level sample efficiency on essentially all AAA video game tasks?
Nov 9, 9:43 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
1.6%
chance
7
578
Option
Votes
YES
NO
924
375
Will the YouTube channel “Rational Animations” release at least 12 videos this year?
Jan 2, 3:01 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
76.4%
chance
7
409
Option
Votes
NO
YES
191
97
How soon will Rob Miles post his next video after "AI Ruined My Year"?
Jun 1, 12:04 PM
Jun 1, 8:59 PM
15
27676
Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?
Aug 29, 5:06 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
80.21%
chance
481
496588
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1126
1045
Will YouTuber 'Whatifalthist's prediction of a new US civil war be covered by major US news media outlets by July 14?
Mar 21, 11:45 AM
Jul 15, 4:59 AM
4.64%
chance
27
55235
Option
Votes
YES
NO
74476
15605
Articles
Latest stories
Kelsea Ballerini Hosts for Final Time, Performs with Drag Queens at 2024 CMT Awards
Authors
12
3 months
Culture
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