Victory or Death News

Will the US have fewer than 1000 cancer deaths in 2050?

Sep 21, 9:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18%chance

2712432

OptionVotes

YES

1113

952

Will Tetraspace's True Death be counterfactually because they cryocrastinated?

Dec 17, 2:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.78%chance

12821

OptionVotes

YES

10473

7637

Will Larry Hogan come within ten points of victory in Maryland's Senate Election?

Feb 9, 5:36 PMNov 16, 4:59 AM

51%chance

152827

OptionVotes

YES

3238

3163

[Bins up to 256,000] Death Toll in 2023 Israel Hamas war - Palestinian side

Oct 11, 5:55 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

410166337

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Feb 27, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.74%chance

518653

OptionVotes

YES

1078

906

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.33%chance

9638551

OptionVotes

YES

3747

1509

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.75%chance

9447154

OptionVotes

YES

1409

1310

Will any Manifold users bet mana gained from a death market, they caused to resolve, on a prize point market?

May 17, 4:48 AMJan 1, 11:41 AM

4.25%chance

2124943

OptionVotes

YES

4748

211

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.59%chance

8568

OptionVotes

YES

377

362

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30267781

What will be Trump's cause of death?

Mar 31, 8:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

462887

Will there be 1 billion famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?

Dec 29, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.74%chance

19848

OptionVotes

YES

1214

955

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Victory or Death News

Prediction markets for Victory or Death

Prediction markets for Victory or Death

Prediction markets for Victory or Death

Will the US have fewer than 1000 cancer deaths in 2050?

Will Tetraspace's True Death be counterfactually because they cryocrastinated?

Will Larry Hogan come within ten points of victory in Maryland's Senate Election?

[Bins up to 256,000] Death Toll in 2023 Israel Hamas war - Palestinian side

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Will any Manifold users bet mana gained from a death market, they caused to resolve, on a prize point market?

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

What will be Trump's cause of death?

Will there be 1 billion famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Victory or Death

Prediction markets for Victory or Death

Prediction markets for Victory or Death

Will the US have fewer than 1000 cancer deaths in 2050?

Will Tetraspace's True Death be counterfactually because they cryocrastinated?

Will Larry Hogan come within ten points of victory in Maryland's Senate Election?

[Bins up to 256,000] Death Toll in 2023 Israel Hamas war - Palestinian side

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?