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Vector News
Prediction markets for Vector
Prediction markets for Vector
Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?
Jun 22, 5:36 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
35.05%
chance
16
1300
Option
Votes
YES
NO
136
73
What will be the final net IRR for Vector Capital VI? (X100)
Dec 2, 7:15 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
66.25%
chance
4
2024
Option
Votes
NO
YES
415
236
Will someone find a truth-telling vector which modifies completions in a range of situations by 2024-10-24?
Jun 2, 1:24 AM
Oct 25, 3:59 AM
58%
chance
7
244
Option
Votes
NO
YES
202
134
Will a viral vector (even an engineered one) integrate a part JoseLuisRiconome-DNA into some1 else's DNA by 2033?
Sep 15, 1:22 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
40.98%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
80
62
Will "Steering GPT-2-XL by adding an activation vector" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Feb 13, 10:48 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
63.12%
chance
7
235
Option
Votes
NO
YES
185
83
If Covid is a lab leak, which lab did it leak from?
Dec 30, 11:24 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
13
972
Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?
Dec 19, 6:43 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
47
2154
In planecrash, what was the fourth Major Curse placed on Abrogail?
Dec 7, 5:58 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
19
1852
How Will the LLM Hallucination Problem Be Solved?
Mar 31, 8:31 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
18
462
Which 2024 AI paper will have the most citations in 2030?
May 12, 4:18 AM
Jan 1, 12:59 PM
3
90
Exit valuation of VectorShift (YC S23)?
Sep 14, 6:37 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
2
70
Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 6:20 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
35.98%
chance
25
6444
Option
Votes
YES
NO
7198
4144
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