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Variety News
Prediction markets for Variety
Prediction markets for Variety
Will the New York Times Magazine kill their variety puzzle page by end of 2024? [M$1000 subsidy]
Aug 8, 8:29 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
38.65%
chance
23
985
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1595
1306
How accurate will Variety’s Oscar predictions be?
Mar 15, 12:50 PM
Mar 17, 6:59 AM
28.68%
chance
4
168
Option
Votes
YES
NO
219
123
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series (76th Emmy awards - September 15th)
May 26, 4:55 PM
Sep 15, 6:59 AM
6
710
By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can
Jan 5, 10:55 AM
Jan 12, 8:29 AM
89.25%
chance
13
1018
Option
Votes
NO
YES
455
147
Which of the following is your favorite of an assorted candy variety pack?
May 28, 5:22 PM
3
0
Which cabbage variety do you prefer: green or red cabbage?
Oct 1, 4:00 AM
6
0
Which of the following ACX Grants Impact Certificates will be bought back at a higher value than they were sold for?
Mar 7, 5:04 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
6
182
What am I going to do next?
Jun 22, 11:14 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
2
5
Will we get AGI before 2048?
Feb 10, 4:11 PM
Mar 1, 10:59 PM
77%
chance
51
17823
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1260
901
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
40.74%
chance
293
66911
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2732
2503
Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?
Oct 26, 5:58 PM
Nov 6, 5:59 AM
50.64%
chance
84
17779
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1809
1071
Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 4:17 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
26.32%
chance
17
8405
Option
Votes
YES
NO
6331
3305
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