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Prediction markets for Utilities

Does listening to music lead to higher utility?

Jun 27, 6:22 PMJul 27, 9:59 PM

25.54%chance

1352008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17060

5872

Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26?

Jan 27, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.28%chance

454720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1749

1043

Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?

Jan 4, 5:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.3%chance

521590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1336

727

By 2060, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Mar 10, 10:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.17%chance

15541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

961

Will SOTA on MATH in Sep 2024 utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure?

Sep 28, 3:29 PMOct 1, 3:59 AM

55.2%chance

171103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1121

881

Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?

May 25, 5:58 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.06%chance

191236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1341

881

Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.74%chance

251225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

929

Will the author(s) of the xz-utils backdoor be caught?

Mar 30, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.79%chance

441315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1508

842

Will a utility-scale solar PPA be made for <$10/MWh by the end of 2026?

Jul 9, 6:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

84.67%chance

121454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1526

829

By 2050, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Feb 21, 8:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9%chance

151286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

960

Will there be products utilizing room-tempature, ambient-pressure superconductors by the end of 2024?

Aug 1, 10:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.44%chance

212514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2043

876

Will researchers discover unintended presence or utilization of steganography in LLM outputs by 2026? [Gwern's Idea]

Apr 23, 8:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.87%chance

540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

151

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Latest stories

Solana-based Phantom Wallet Ranks 3rd in App Store Utilities, Acquires a16z-backed Bitski
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1 month
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