Turn News

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.4%chance

151070

OptionVotes

YES

5673

4770

Will Roon turn against OpenAI in 2024?

May 21, 6:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.08%chance

3119756

OptionVotes

YES

2987

335

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

7%chance

172181

OptionVotes

YES

985

448

Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?

Dec 17, 5:10 PMFeb 23, 7:59 AM

48.44%chance

6112321

OptionVotes

YES

1286

1037

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.45%chance

11373

OptionVotes

YES

993

978

Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?

Dec 26, 2:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.89%chance

6198

OptionVotes

YES

137

122

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

70%chance

351251

OptionVotes

YES

990

987

Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)

May 20, 10:49 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

62.2%chance

13939

OptionVotes

YES

1283

780

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

1003

994

Will an AI Doomer turn to violence by the end of 2026?

Feb 17, 3:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.69%chance

30785

OptionVotes

YES

1091

950

Will the Three Body Problem netflix series turn everyone into femboys?

May 8, 5:13 AMApr 21, 6:59 AM

48.44%chance

201131

OptionVotes

YES

1275

346

Will Euphoria season 3 premiere before Zendaya turns 29? (September 1st, 2025)

Mar 25, 8:51 PMOct 3, 6:59 AM

44.71%chance

11202

OptionVotes

YES

1028

972

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Turn News

Prediction markets for Turn

Prediction markets for Turn

Prediction markets for Turn

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Will Roon turn against OpenAI in 2024?

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Will an AI Doomer turn to violence by the end of 2026?

Will the Three Body Problem netflix series turn everyone into femboys?

Will Euphoria season 3 premiere before Zendaya turns 29? (September 1st, 2025)

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Turn

Prediction markets for Turn

Prediction markets for Turn

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Will Roon turn against OpenAI in 2024?

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?