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Turing Award News
Prediction markets for Turing Award
Prediction markets for Turing Award
Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040?
Feb 11, 1:32 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
78.14%
chance
27
479
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1202
919
Will a paper or report, with >=1 turing award winner as an author, suggest that an AI system is conscious, by 2025 end?
Aug 25, 12:41 AM
Dec 31, 6:29 PM
12.71%
chance
14
663
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1073
965
Will a paper or report, with >=1 turing award winner as an author, suggest that an AI system is conscious, by 2024 end?
Aug 25, 12:19 AM
Dec 31, 6:29 PM
9.6%
chance
21
662
Option
Votes
YES
NO
990
975
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win a Turing Award before 2038?
May 7, 9:22 PM
Jan 2, 12:30 PM
6.37%
chance
12
422
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1256
950
Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040
Jun 24, 11:19 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
39.31%
chance
2
25
Option
Votes
YES
NO
124
80
Who will be the next Turing Award Winner for research in AI/ML?
Dec 18, 4:34 PM
Dec 26, 5:59 AM
12
329
Will either a Nobel Prize in Economics or a Turing Award be awarded to Satoshi Nakamoto before 2050?
Oct 6, 6:32 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
10.63%
chance
9
1135
Option
Votes
YES
NO
321
171
Will Greg Yang win a turing award
Jun 23, 11:02 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
39.31%
chance
1
25
Option
Votes
YES
NO
124
80
Will repligate/janus win a turing award
Jun 23, 11:02 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
31.16%
chance
2
50
Option
Votes
YES
NO
149
67
Which elite global achievers will join manifold? Nobel prize, Nebula, Pope, EGOT, Pulitzer? 50+ Y/N options, research op
Dec 1, 5:39 PM
Jul 1, 4:59 AM
19
2655
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
8.52%
chance
21
6782
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3277
305
P(Doom) - Yoshua Bengio
Mar 31, 12:10 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
10
435
Articles
Latest stories
Israeli Mathematician Avi Wigderson Wins 2023 Turing Award for Seminal Work on Randomness and Theoretical Computer Science
Authors
26
3 months
Israel
World
Turing Laureate Niklaus Wirth, Inventor of Pascal, Dies at 89
Authors
24
6 months
Tech
AI Experts Call for Urgent Governance and Action on AI Development Risks
Authors
23
8 months
AI
Tech
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