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Prediction markets for True

Will Tetraspace's True Death be counterfactually because they cryocrastinated?

Dec 17, 2:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.78%chance

12821

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10473

7637

Will the first ASI proclaim Christianity true?

Feb 10, 1:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

4.47%chance

471817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2043

893

Will Greg Brockman's bullish optimism on AI in 2024 prove true?

Jan 2, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.51%chance

687196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2346

1013

What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series?

Feb 24, 11:34 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

425198

Which of the following political scenarios will be true in the following 2024 US Presidential elections?

Mar 6, 5:23 PMNov 5, 10:59 PM

13829256

Will Steve Bannon's prediction that Trump will pick a woman as running mate come true?

Jan 10, 5:54 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

15.99%chance

13020691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2811

403

What year will mark the first true AGI?

Mar 11, 8:46 PMMar 12, 5:59 AM

16.77%chance

222541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

815

What will be true of the Manifold X / Twitter Community by July 31st

Jun 19, 1:22 AMJul 31, 2:29 PM

74600

Will the next US president allow Hollywood to make as many true-to-physics time travel movies as past administrations?

Jun 8, 10:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.72%chance

5614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1168

856

Is the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis true?

Feb 13, 5:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.76%chance

16696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

984

Will True Detective Season 5 be released before The Winds of Winter? (George R. R. Martin's next Game of Thrones Book)

Jan 17, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.29%chance

16449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

941

AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?

Oct 13, 4:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.3%chance

14342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

910

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