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Prediction markets for Top Pick

Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)

Jun 15, 2:23 PMJul 31, 6:59 AM

68%chance

376154613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70482

38499

Will the CyberTruck achieve the IIHS rating of Top Safety Pick+?

Dec 3, 4:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.67%chance

12600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1265

896

Will the Carolina Panthers have a top five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?

Jan 15, 5:42 AMJan 20, 3:59 PM

79%chance

354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

46

Will "Picking Mentors For Research Programmes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Apr 1, 11:23 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.64%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

117

Will "Picking Mentors For Research Programmes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Apr 1, 11:23 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.79%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

137

Will Carson Beck be a top-10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?

Apr 29, 2:02 AMMay 14, 3:59 AM

52.75%chance

548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

146

What Will be True About the 2024-25 NFL MVP?

May 13, 1:40 AMFeb 16, 7:59 AM

6183

Which bold predictions will come true during the 2024 MLB season?

Mar 26, 10:19 PMNov 9, 7:59 AM

121019

Will GiveWell fund Eyeglasses to improve workers' manual dexterity by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.85%chance

286395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7403

3293

Will USDT (tether) fail by 2030

Jun 17, 6:20 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

57.27%chance

253303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

732

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

65.2%chance

251196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

970

Will any other high-level academic or public figure resign or be fired because of plagiarism allegations in 2024?

Jan 5, 10:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.37%chance

422980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1483

841

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