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Top Performers News
Prediction markets for Top Performers
Prediction markets for Top Performers
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
Jun 14, 4:48 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
55%
chance
36
4857
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1106
905
Which open source LLM will be the top performing open source LLM by July 1, 2024?
Dec 30, 7:57 PM
Jul 2, 3:59 AM
30
3464
Will "High Status Eschews Quantification of Performance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Mar 12, 11:41 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
14%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
Which of InvestAnswers 2024 money making predictions will be correct?
Jan 19, 12:58 AM
Jan 1, 1:29 PM
12
378
Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market (5000m prize voting based contest)
Dec 18, 5:45 PM
Dec 17, 6:59 AM
102
47274
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2030?
Dec 6, 1:43 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
65.68%
chance
89
139639
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1958
1262
Will there be a Manifold bot that makes profitable bets on random 1-month markets by December 2024? (Ṁ3,000 subsidy!)
Jan 2, 3:23 AM
Dec 2, 5:59 AM
61.2%
chance
215
12668
Option
Votes
NO
YES
5239
4210
Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 6:20 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
35.98%
chance
25
6444
Option
Votes
YES
NO
7198
4144
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2027?
Dec 6, 1:42 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
51.44%
chance
69
57156
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2383
1288
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?
Dec 6, 1:13 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
10.41%
chance
164
107729
Option
Votes
YES
NO
6799
1437
Will any LLM released by EOY 2025 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?
Sep 20, 3:16 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
45.88%
chance
42
3237
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1827
1226
Will Carson the Terrier once again place top 3 in the 2024 World Dog Surfing Championships (WDSC)?
Apr 30, 3:26 AM
Aug 3, 6:59 AM
60.65%
chance
10
158
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1130
900
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Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu Top States' Startup Ranking 2022; Arunachal Pradesh Gets Special Nod
Authors
4
6 months
Tech
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