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Prediction markets for Tools

SoAI 23 3/10: Will Self-improving Al agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science)?

Oct 18, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.95%chance

315481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

763

Will a Biology paper containing false data generated by a LLM tool be published in an accredited journal in 2024?

Jan 1, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.93%chance

493908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

777

Will ChatBots become an indispensable tool for most children's K-12 grade education in the United States before the end of the decade (<2030)?

Jan 3, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

433878

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

731

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

62.37%chance

161284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1479

391

Will Apple have a top tier AI tool developed in house and available to consumers by the of 2025?

Nov 20, 4:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.08%chance

16985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

985

Will I start using a non-LLM AI tool on a daily basis before 2025?

May 9, 11:34 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.83%chance

15418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

732

Will OpenAI release a tool to identify images generated by DALL.E? (in 2024)

Mar 12, 7:46 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

51.66%chance

12123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

977

Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing gay pornography video of Elon Musk having sex with Peter Thiel by 2025?

Jan 1, 7:43 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

24.88%chance

11374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

915

Will a paper falsified (or containing false data generated) by a LLM tool be published in an accredited journal in 2024?

Dec 29, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.45%chance

21461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

921

Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing video of a gay orgy (#LemonParty) of the entire Paypal Mafia by 2026?

Jan 1, 7:45 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

35.02%chance

11337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

946

Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.74%chance

251225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

929

In 2028, will programmers usually be able to use GitHub Copilot and similar tools in interviews?

Dec 25, 10:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.18%chance

30998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

914

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Latest stories

Hugging Face's HuggingChat Introduces Open-Source Tools for Enhanced AI Functionality
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1 month
AI
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