Tool Use News

SoAI 23 3/10: Will Self-improving Al agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science)?

Oct 18, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.72%chance

325531

OptionVotes

YES

1070

812

Will I start using a non-LLM AI tool on a daily basis before 2025?

May 9, 11:34 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.83%chance

15418

OptionVotes

YES

1087

732

In 2028, will programmers usually be able to use GitHub Copilot and similar tools in interviews?

Dec 25, 10:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.18%chance

30998

OptionVotes

YES

1119

914

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Jan 23, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.5%chance

491204

OptionVotes

YES

1250

821

Will Albania be successful in entering European Union due to Using OpenAI tools?

Mar 7, 12:06 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

13.43%chance

13513

OptionVotes

YES

1313

899

[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?

Oct 22, 8:52 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

50.4%chance

8189

OptionVotes

YES

154

142

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI by 2030?

Jun 25, 1:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.63%chance

7116

OptionVotes

YES

236

134

Will AI be used as an election campaign tool in the 2024 US presidential election?

Dec 27, 7:04 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

89.75%chance

9192

OptionVotes

YES

318

129

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI?

Jun 25, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3105

EOY 2030, what % of MIT undergrads self-modified to reduce their sleep needs using medical tools unavailable in 2023?

Jul 11, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.48%chance

OptionVotes

YES

271

188

Will self-improving AI agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science) in next 12 months?

Oct 13, 8:41 PMOct 2, 3:59 AM

40.03%chance

14954

OptionVotes

YES

171

133

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Mar 25, 10:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

582719

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Tool Use News

Prediction markets for Tool Use

Prediction markets for Tool Use

Prediction markets for Tool Use

SoAI 23 3/10: Will Self-improving Al agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science)?

Will I start using a non-LLM AI tool on a daily basis before 2025?

In 2028, will programmers usually be able to use GitHub Copilot and similar tools in interviews?

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Will Albania be successful in entering European Union due to Using OpenAI tools?

[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI by 2030?

Will AI be used as an election campaign tool in the 2024 US presidential election?

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI?

EOY 2030, what % of MIT undergrads self-modified to reduce their sleep needs using medical tools unavailable in 2023?

Will self-improving AI agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science) in next 12 months?

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Tool Use

Prediction markets for Tool Use

Prediction markets for Tool Use

SoAI 23 3/10: Will Self-improving Al agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science)?

Will I start using a non-LLM AI tool on a daily basis before 2025?

In 2028, will programmers usually be able to use GitHub Copilot and similar tools in interviews?

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Will Albania be successful in entering European Union due to Using OpenAI tools?

[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI by 2030?