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Prediction markets for Timely Reporting Act

For my bachelor party, which activities will most attendees report enjoying/being a good use of time...

Jul 1, 1:03 AMJul 8, 6:59 AM

361

Will there be an act of terrorism using drones in Paris during the Olympics between July 24 - August 11?

Jun 11, 12:15 AMAug 13, 4:59 AM

10.28%chance

5725913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29479

3521

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.49%chance

36477599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3210

2079

Will Ron DeSantis revert back to his previous height by EOY 2024?

Jan 22, 10:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.34%chance

35699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2326

1552

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16.15%chance

171247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1408

888

Will Lockheed Martin deny that it was in possession of UFOs before the end of 2024?

Dec 11, 12:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.38%chance

13433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

968

Project 2025: If elected, will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act within 3 months?

Feb 12, 4:35 AMApr 20, 6:59 AM

44.16%chance

495500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

884

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.93%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

958

Will Rep.-elect George Santos appear in court or in custody in Brazil (including through extradition) before the end of 2024?

Jan 3, 3:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.5%chance

244067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2202

813

Will there be a vote confirmed for a united Ireland before the end of 2025?

Oct 4, 1:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.24%chance

7584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

517

92

[Metaculus] Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?

Nov 7, 2:24 PMJan 3, 6:00 AM

8.68%chance

8351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

421

89

How many OpenAI employee letter-signers will recant? (EOY2024)

Nov 22, 3:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8283

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