THR News

Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024?

Jul 4, 5:15 PMJan 1, 7:29 AM

7.61%chance

9261628935

OptionVotes

YES

10281

3324

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

51.76%chance

232732

OptionVotes

YES

4724

4281

[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?

Jan 1, 1:31 PMJan 2, 2:00 PM

70.82%chance

35470720

OptionVotes

YES

3345

1366

Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the three months after release?

Feb 15, 6:35 PMJul 17, 6:59 AM

52.97%chance

37355057

OptionVotes

YES

2220

1687

Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

Mar 18, 12:21 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

34.56%chance

6910198

OptionVotes

YES

1322

831

Will Twitter have more users than Meta Threads in December 2025?

Jul 6, 12:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82.61%chance

11910334

OptionVotes

YES

3591

1454

Will Threads overtake X in daily active users by the end of 2024?

Dec 22, 2:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.41%chance

37583960

OptionVotes

YES

8870

2508

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2024 election? [Res. PROB]

Jul 1, 7:32 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

20.67%chance

322044

OptionVotes

YES

1029

964

Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate NSFW videos in the three months after release?

Feb 15, 6:34 PMAug 17, 6:59 AM

69%chance

858261

OptionVotes

YES

1393

715

Will users under 18 years old be allowed to use Manifold throughout 2024?

Apr 23, 1:55 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

27.34%chance

424317

OptionVotes

YES

1901

946

🤢Will I throw up / vomit at some point in 2024?

Mar 22, 4:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.73%chance

484432

OptionVotes

YES

1648

636

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2028 election? [Res. PROB]

Jul 1, 7:52 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

23.32%chance

17728

OptionVotes

YES

995

926

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THR News

Prediction markets for THR

Prediction markets for THR

Prediction markets for THR

Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024?

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?

Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the three months after release?

Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

Will Twitter have more users than Meta Threads in December 2025?

Will Threads overtake X in daily active users by the end of 2024?

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2024 election? [Res. PROB]

Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate NSFW videos in the three months after release?

Will users under 18 years old be allowed to use Manifold throughout 2024?

🤢Will I throw up / vomit at some point in 2024?

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2028 election? [Res. PROB]

Latest stories

Prediction markets for THR

Prediction markets for THR

Prediction markets for THR

Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024?

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?

Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the three months after release?

Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

Will Twitter have more users than Meta Threads in December 2025?

Will Threads overtake X in daily active users by the end of 2024?

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2024 election? [Res. PROB]

Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate NSFW videos in the three months after release?

Will users under 18 years old be allowed to use Manifold throughout 2024?

🤢Will I throw up / vomit at some point in 2024?

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2028 election? [Res. PROB]

Latest stories