THINK LATER News

If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?

Nov 18, 5:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.07%chance

17212

OptionVotes

YES

1057

935

What nootropics or other cognitive enhancements will I see a significant positive effect from if I take them?

Jan 17, 11:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

201177

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.27%chance

13836006

OptionVotes

YES

5620

1243

Will there be a Manifold bot that makes profitable bets on random 1-month markets by December 2024? (Ṁ3,000 subsidy!)

Jan 2, 3:23 AMDec 2, 5:59 AM

61.2%chance

21512668

OptionVotes

YES

5239

4210

Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?

Aug 18, 4:14 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

17137982

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.37%chance

371079

OptionVotes

YES

2150

2093

Will I find an internship for 2025? (1.6K subsidy and growing)

May 13, 10:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.02%chance

12632

OptionVotes

YES

1704

1527

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.09%chance

9447342

OptionVotes

YES

1498

1357

Is OpenAI's Q* real?

Nov 23, 5:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.61%chance

12914243

OptionVotes

YES

1333

993

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

1040

971

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.07%chance

281343

OptionVotes

YES

1057

816

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

35.03%chance

11264

OptionVotes

YES

1056

964

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THINK LATER News

Prediction markets for THINK LATER

Prediction markets for THINK LATER

Prediction markets for THINK LATER

If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?

What nootropics or other cognitive enhancements will I see a significant positive effect from if I take them?

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Will there be a Manifold bot that makes profitable bets on random 1-month markets by December 2024? (Ṁ3,000 subsidy!)

Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Will I find an internship for 2025? (1.6K subsidy and growing)

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Is OpenAI's Q* real?

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for THINK LATER

Prediction markets for THINK LATER

Prediction markets for THINK LATER

If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?

What nootropics or other cognitive enhancements will I see a significant positive effect from if I take them?

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Will there be a Manifold bot that makes profitable bets on random 1-month markets by December 2024? (Ṁ3,000 subsidy!)

Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Will I find an internship for 2025? (1.6K subsidy and growing)