The Way News

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2024?🧠🕵️

Jun 18, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.05%chance

484111683

OptionVotes

YES

2301

2194

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2025?🧠🕵️

Jun 20, 9:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.2%chance

13214001

OptionVotes

YES

2600

1744

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.62%chance

603353

OptionVotes

YES

1453

379

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2030? 🧠🕵️

Jul 10, 12:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.97%chance

9810989

OptionVotes

YES

1640

1367

Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?

Nov 21, 11:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

81.28%chance

381444

OptionVotes

YES

1180

940

Will the US 2024 presidential election go the way of the popular vote?

Oct 2, 10:28 PMNov 5, 6:41 PM

75.45%chance

211008

OptionVotes

YES

991

983

Will a state or district that voted by over 55% for a candidate in the 2020 election vote the opposite way in 2024?

Jul 24, 12:52 PMNov 11, 1:29 PM

29.36%chance

17388

OptionVotes

YES

1007

943

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

70.27%chance

10336

OptionVotes

YES

1062

963

Will Elon Musk ever father a child the old fashioned way?

Jul 22, 2:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.39%chance

14684

OptionVotes

YES

995

986

Will @levifinkelstein resolve the linked market incorrectly or in a misleading way?

Jun 5, 6:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25%chance

13324

OptionVotes

YES

1086

958

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

1054

966

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.19%chance

12183

OptionVotes

YES

1123

940

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The Way News

Prediction markets for The Way

Prediction markets for The Way

Prediction markets for The Way

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2024?🧠🕵️

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2025?🧠🕵️

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2030? 🧠🕵️

Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?

Will the US 2024 presidential election go the way of the popular vote?

Will a state or district that voted by over 55% for a candidate in the 2020 election vote the opposite way in 2024?

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Will Elon Musk ever father a child the old fashioned way?

Will @levifinkelstein resolve the linked market incorrectly or in a misleading way?

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for The Way

Prediction markets for The Way

Prediction markets for The Way

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2024?🧠🕵️

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2025?🧠🕵️

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2030? 🧠🕵️

Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?

Will the US 2024 presidential election go the way of the popular vote?

Will a state or district that voted by over 55% for a candidate in the 2020 election vote the opposite way in 2024?