The Running Man News

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

52.36%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

10483

9539

If Manifold runs a hiring-decision market in the next ~year, will they think it's worth doing multiple more times?

Sep 24, 11:52 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

39.15%chance

232323

OptionVotes

YES

1704

1185

Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

Nov 17, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.21%chance

281761

OptionVotes

YES

995

959

Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent?

Jun 1, 4:05 AMAug 1, 4:59 AM

19.52%chance

315396

OptionVotes

YES

2031

492

When the current $500k grant for Manifold For Charity runs out, will the charity program continue?

Apr 21, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.28%chance

191217

OptionVotes

YES

1725

813

How many successful landing attempts will SpaceX have in their current run?

Jul 27, 6:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.51%chance

16487

OptionVotes

YES

995

993

How many billion dollar AI training runs will occur in 2024?

Jan 8, 6:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

693734

300M subsidy: Will there be a bank run on manifold (within 12 months of cash payouts starting)?

Apr 23, 5:01 AMJun 30, 1:59 PM

19.23%chance

8214

OptionVotes

YES

726

492

When will Manifold run out of money?

Apr 3, 2:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

181142

When will someone first manage to get Manifold running locally?

Dec 8, 3:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

184908

If RFK Jr. runs as an independent, who will it hurt more [resolves to manifold poll]

Sep 29, 11:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11426

Will there be a bank run on manifold?

Apr 23, 4:56 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

3270

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The Running Man News

Prediction markets for The Running Man

Prediction markets for The Running Man

Prediction markets for The Running Man

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

If Manifold runs a hiring-decision market in the next ~year, will they think it's worth doing multiple more times?

Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent?

When the current $500k grant for Manifold For Charity runs out, will the charity program continue?

How many successful landing attempts will SpaceX have in their current run?

How many billion dollar AI training runs will occur in 2024?

300M subsidy: Will there be a bank run on manifold (within 12 months of cash payouts starting)?

When will Manifold run out of money?

When will someone first manage to get Manifold running locally?

If RFK Jr. runs as an independent, who will it hurt more [resolves to manifold poll]

Will there be a bank run on manifold?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for The Running Man

Prediction markets for The Running Man

Prediction markets for The Running Man

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

If Manifold runs a hiring-decision market in the next ~year, will they think it's worth doing multiple more times?

Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent?

When the current $500k grant for Manifold For Charity runs out, will the charity program continue?

How many successful landing attempts will SpaceX have in their current run?

How many billion dollar AI training runs will occur in 2024?

300M subsidy: Will there be a bank run on manifold (within 12 months of cash payouts starting)?

When will Manifold run out of money?

When will someone first manage to get Manifold running locally?