The Problem News

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025?

Aug 15, 2:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22%chance

441136382

OptionVotes

YES

4181

3465

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?

Aug 15, 8:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.19%chance

20258342

OptionVotes

YES

4060

3533

Will GPT-5 get the Monty Fall problem correct?

Mar 15, 7:24 AMDec 31, 7:24 AM

61%chance

8127925

OptionVotes

YES

1136

655

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

36.55%chance

10451006

OptionVotes

YES

1294

1031

Will Kurzgesagt release a video specifically about the AI Alignment Problem before the end of 2024?

Mar 6, 8:03 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

62.78%chance

20920662

OptionVotes

YES

3084

1406

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

Jun 12, 6:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

175165

Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?

Nov 29, 5:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

48.04%chance

235597

OptionVotes

YES

1074

918

Will artificial intelligence be part of a solution of the NEXT Millennium Problem?

Aug 16, 4:34 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

51.01%chance

604638

OptionVotes

YES

1098

857

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Oct 26, 10:09 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

38.75%chance

222770

OptionVotes

YES

1634

234

Will any AI be able to formalize >=90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?

Nov 29, 5:30 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

20%chance

345795

OptionVotes

YES

1640

711

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?

Jan 7, 8:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.9%chance

584720

OptionVotes

YES

1071

924

Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?

Feb 28, 3:09 PMDec 31, 9:01 PM

30.47%chance

779538

OptionVotes

YES

1406

938

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The Problem News

Prediction markets for The Problem

Prediction markets for The Problem

Prediction markets for The Problem

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025?

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?

Will GPT-5 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct?

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Will Kurzgesagt release a video specifically about the AI Alignment Problem before the end of 2024?

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?

Will artificial intelligence be part of a solution of the NEXT Millennium Problem?

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Will any AI be able to formalize >=90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?

Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for The Problem

Prediction markets for The Problem

Prediction markets for The Problem

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025?

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?

Will GPT-5 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct?

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Will Kurzgesagt release a video specifically about the AI Alignment Problem before the end of 2024?

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?

Will GPT-5 get the Monty Fall problem correct?

Will GPT-5 get the Monty Fall problem correct?