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Top stories

152nd Open Qualifying: Rick Shiels, Peter Finch, Nick Benz, Danny Guise, Angelo Giantsopoulos, Brandon Berry, Robert Rock Advance to Final Qualifying
Authors
5
7 days
Golf
Sports

Prediction markets for The Open

Will the 400B+ open source Llama 3 model rank higher than GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 on the lmsys leaderboard?

Aug 28, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

60.36%chance

20254498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

32280

21687

What will be the most impactful feature developed in 2024? (open for trading)

Apr 4, 3:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8502

Will there be an open source video model roughly as good as OpenAI Sora by the end of 2024?

Feb 15, 6:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.46%chance

384403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

952

Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2024?

Sep 3, 3:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.72%chance

7114837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3098

481

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

85.05%chance

949724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2225

110

Will the open water swimming events be able to take place in the Seine river for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games?

Aug 6, 8:26 PMAug 31, 9:59 PM

47.86%chance

302761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1280

462

WhiteBox Research will solve at least four of Neel Nanda's Concrete Open Problems by the end of September 2024.

Jun 20, 12:04 PMSep 30, 3:59 PM

53.47%chance

3117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

933

Will the new LLM released by Meta be open-source?

Sep 19, 7:42 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

56.7%chance

403164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

839

Will a US Governor, Senator, President, or VP be in a open polyamourous relationship without scandal by the end of 2039?

Sep 19, 11:29 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

28.14%chance

18409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

964

Will the Federal Trade Commission open an investigation into Mastercard restricting adult content?

Aug 31, 4:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.56%chance

13388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

949

Will the CVS across from Lighthaven stay open for another year?

Jun 3, 3:53 AMJun 10, 6:59 AM

73.62%chance

6761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1671

599

Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030?

Jul 2, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.17%chance

482307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

891

Articles

Latest stories

152nd Open Qualifying: Rick Shiels, Peter Finch, Nick Benz, Danny Guise, Angelo Giantsopoulos, Brandon Berry, Robert Rock Advance to Final Qualifying
Authors
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7 days
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