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The New Yorker News
Top stories
New Yorker's David Remnick Urges Biden to Step Aside, Citing National Endangerment
Authors
7
5 days
China
Washington DC
World
Ezra Klein on Ruth Bader Ginsburg's Impactful Decision Not to Retire Amid Democratic Party Crisis
Authors
6
5 days
Bio
Politics
Science
Corey Robin's Controversial New Yorker Review of Hayek Biography Sparks Debate
Authors
7
4 days
Economics
Education
Business
Prediction markets for The New Yorker
Prediction markets for The New Yorker
Who will be the next Editor in Chief of The New Yorker?
May 3, 10:37 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
1
15
When will I mistake an AI-generated short story for a story from the New Yorker, in at least 1 of 5 tries?
Nov 22, 7:22 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
10
389
How many of The New Yorker's top ten articles of 2024 will involve Agnes Callard?
Dec 15, 11:55 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
4
287
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
292228
Will NYC MTA Access-A-Ride Paratransit Service assist more than 1 million New Yorkers in at least one month of 2024?
Nov 29, 5:29 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
52.15%
chance
3
18
Option
Votes
NO
YES
91
89
Will YouTuber 'Whatifalthist's prediction of a new US civil war be covered by major US news media outlets by July 14?
Mar 21, 11:45 AM
Jul 15, 4:59 AM
4.64%
chance
27
55235
Option
Votes
YES
NO
74476
15605
Will there be an act of terrorism using drones in Paris during the Olympics between July 24 - August 11?
Jun 11, 12:15 AM
Aug 13, 4:59 AM
10.28%
chance
57
25913
Option
Votes
YES
NO
29479
3521
By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)
Sep 16, 8:33 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
92.83%
chance
74
24516
Option
Votes
NO
YES
3220
964
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
Jul 13, 11:37 AM
Jan 2, 12:30 PM
29.99%
chance
66
9182
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1394
752
Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2024?
Sep 3, 3:53 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
11.13%
chance
71
14937
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3197
468
Will a magazine publish a +8000 word piece about the Silicon Valley Bank saga?
Mar 13, 9:43 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
72%
chance
11
507
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1013
980
Will Theo Baker sell the film rights to the story of him taking down the President of Stanford as a freshman?
Jul 22, 6:20 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
54.64%
chance
16
808
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1030
927
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