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Prediction markets for The Money Man

Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?

Oct 26, 5:58 PMNov 6, 5:59 AM

44.04%chance

8717989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1994

905

Will Manifold launch real money prizes, and still have them at the end of 2024?

Apr 28, 3:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13612857

Will Manifold's post-money valuation be higher than Kalshi's at the end of 2027?

Feb 15, 11:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.92%chance

135489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

922

Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?

Jan 4, 5:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.3%chance

521590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1336

727

Will I ever be net positive (real money) on Manifold before 2030?

Sep 9, 7:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.66%chance

11271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

972

Will a play money alternative to manifold appear before 2025?

Apr 23, 2:33 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

74.23%chance

523499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

919

Will it be possible to convert mana into real money either on Manifold or any other platform by 2025?

Jul 31, 2:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.49%chance

403764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

519

If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve?

Nov 17, 5:04 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45.01%chance

381471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

838

Will a real money alternative to manifold appear before 2025?

Apr 24, 12:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.15%chance

14316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

885

Will there be a play-money Manifold fork by 2025-04-23?

Apr 23, 2:16 AMApr 24, 3:59 AM

80.05%chance

13959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

853

Manifold pre-money valuation in the next funding round (in thousands of dollars)

Feb 9, 3:48 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

30.1%chance

4160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

561

508

Will Manifold have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?

Sep 26, 10:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.62%chance

363682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2584

823

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