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The Martian News
Prediction markets for The Martian
Prediction markets for The Martian
Will the Martian Moons eXploration probe (MMX) reach Mars and be functional?
Sep 16, 3:37 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
77%
chance
7
106
Option
Votes
NO
YES
185
129
What items will be included in the first meal eaten on the Martian surface?
Apr 7, 3:27 AM
Apr 2, 3:59 AM
28
1738
What books will I enjoy reading?
Apr 27, 1:31 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
172
34997
Which book similar to The three body problem and Children of Time will I like best.
Mar 27, 7:53 PM
Jul 8, 9:59 PM
15
636
🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films that haven't been on it before will make it? [ADD RESPONSES]
Mar 4, 4:54 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
9
570
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
Apr 18, 12:18 AM
Jul 7, 4:00 PM
280
345733
Will there be a martian colony by 2050?
Dec 23, 10:35 PM
Dec 31, 5:59 AM
32.45%
chance
78
5500
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1634
1247
A Martian colony will exist before a Lunar one
Feb 6, 10:51 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
39.51%
chance
20
810
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1014
956
Will Elon Musk launch a reality show on Mars, featuring Martian life by 2030?
Feb 5, 11:42 AM
Jan 1, 9:59 PM
5%
chance
17
578
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1349
946
Will it be scientific consensus that there is currently microscopic life on Mars by 2034?
Jan 6, 12:18 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
18.43%
chance
76
2892
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1756
1345
Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?
Dec 31, 2:25 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
64.27%
chance
58
2347
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1307
1246
Will a human step foot on Mars by 2035?
Mar 5, 9:23 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
19.12%
chance
86
9179
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1957
819
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